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When Mike Elias was hired to be the new Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations/General Manager in mid-November 2018, there was an immediate sense of optimism among the Baltimore Orioles’ fanbase. After all, Elias had come from a winning organization – the Houston Astros – who had just won a World Series in 2017.   The move was also praised by virtually the entire industry.

However it took Elias until early December to hire a manager, (former Cubs bench coach Brandon Hyde) doing so at the Winter Meetings, and that didn’t go very smoothly either. Elias completely denied reports that the Orioles were even close to hiring Hyde as MLB Network was breaking the story on the TV behind him in the hotel suite.  Needless to say, he didn’t come across as very media savvy in that moment. A “no comment” would  have been a much better route and would have given reporters enough to go on.

Once the hire had been made official, which wasn’t until December 14th, it took until January 23rd to sign the entire coaching staff.  So what usually takes teams a few weeks to a month to put together after the season, it took the Orioles almost three months.

Meanwhile, looking at transactions this offseason, very little has been done to augment the major league squad, with only two Rule 5 picks and waiver claims Rio Ruiz, Austin Brice and Hanser Alberto as additions to the 40 man roster. Granted the pace of transactions has been slow across MLB, but the Orioles could easily fill a few holes in their outfield and infield with the options that are still remaining.

Once Miguel Tejada had been traded in the 2007-2008 offseason, it took Andy MacPhail until July to find a passable defensive replacement in Juan Castro as he attempted to use multiple internal options – Luis Hernandez, Brandon Fahey, Freddy Bynum and Alex Cintron.  All failed to fill the role, hurting the club in the process.

It seems once again the Orioles have a GM with a lack of urgency and is content to use internal options, albeit it seems he has better internal talent to work with.

Orioles fans may have disliked or even hated former EVP of Baseball Operations, Dan Duquette, but the one thing he could never be accused of would be waiting too long for what should be day-to-day transactions.  The 40 man roster was manipulated almost daily in his tenure, sometimes quite creatively.  Mike Elias has yet to show any of that same timeliness or creativeness  with his moves, and instead is much more methodical like Andy MacPhail.

Also like MacPhail, Elias is also choosing to have a leaner front office. Those in the case of Elias, it’s supposedly because he wasn’t able to hire who he wanted as a scouting director or head of player development.  Instead he will fill those roles himself.   Their scouting department also has less personnel than when Duquette was in charge with apparently no national crosschecker.

While he is not too far removed from the days of being in charge of development and scouting with the Astros, having only one person doing multiple tasks does not bode well for the timeliness of transactions as we’ve seen.   MacPhail chose to have fewer staff because he wanted to make all the decisions, and that caused the Orioles to wait weeks or months to make moves that Dan Duquette would make in a day.  Now once again it seems the Orioles are taking weeks or months to make moves that most clubs can fill much quicker.

So it remains to be seen if Elias will be able to come close to the pace of transactions that Dan Duquette and his trusted core of advisors were able to have.  When it comes to evaluating the draft, there should be some concern that if Elias is taking so much time trying to evaluate and then sign draft picks, how is he going to handle potential trade deadline moves that also typically ramp up in the same timeframe?  Who is going to be evaluating the minor league talent if there are few scouts to do so?  Brady Anderson?  Tripp Norton?  Now perhaps you see why there should be concern.

Duquette was able to make the moves at the pace he did because he had a trusted staff underneath him that he could delegate certain portions of baseball operations, like Lee Thomas.  Elias only has Sig Mejdal and then what’s left of the Duquette regime which isn’t much.

The lack of staff creating too much work for Mike Elias couldn’t be more evident in the way he has (or hasn’t) handled Chris Davis this offseason.  At his introductory press conference Elias said the following about Davis:

“I’m going to get involved in the work going into his offseason work, his preparation. And any new ideas or information that we can provide to him to help him out, we will do our best to do that. So that’s my hope.”

As of December 11th, Elias had not contacted Davis according to the Baltimore Sun.

When interviewed on January 17th, Davis still had yet to talk to Elias according to MASNSports’  Roch Kubakto, though he did talk to manager Brandon Hyde.

Now perhaps Elias delegated check-ins to his manager, but it would seem pretty concerning after that statement that he had yet to contact his star first baseman in the offseason with Spring Training right around the corner.  It seems Davis did everything on his own again, which may or may not work out.  Either way the Orioles don’t seem to have been involved like Elias promised.

I understand there is a honeymoon period here for Mike Elias, but that can only last for so long.  It’s understandable the team is not going to be competitive for awhile, but it seems in this case perfect is the enemy of good, and Elias may be holding the Orioles back from competitiveness longer simply by refusing to make moves and fill roles that could help the club along because he can’t find the perfect fit.

Now next offseason, Elias should be able to hire all of the staff that he needs, but in the meantime fans will still need to hold him accountable for the moves he doesn’t make because of that lack of urgency.   Andy MacPhail seemed to get a pass there, and his honeymoon period still doesn’t quite seem to be over for some fans considering the complete failures in developing pitching and disasters in free agency he had as well as the distinct lack of urgency to bring the Orioles to a competitive level.

Rebuilding doesn’t have to last for years, and for Mike Elias, he needs to understand from fans that we will only wait so long before the honeymoon will be over and accountability will be required.

That’s our job and we need to make sure that we fill our role if Elias fails to fill his.

I’ve seen a lot written about Chance Sisco, the Orioles’ catching prospect lately after he made his debut with the team in September.

Most of these articles seem to think he’s going to be a backup to Caleb Joseph in spite of having a better eye at the plate and batting as a LH hitter, or start in the minors and cede time to a yet to be acquired veteran backstop, or get leapfrogged by what seems to be another Showalter mancrush in Austin Wynns.

Why?

Because he is below average in throwing out runners, an ability which is an absolute must for Buck Showalter, who would probably have altered Jim Palmer’s and Mike Mussina’s delivery to speed up their times to home plate if he had managed them in their careers.

Buck is absolutely obsessed with controlling the running game as much as anything else in baseball, which does not bode well for young Sisco.

The only problem is Sisco is probably one of the best pure hitters the Orioles have in their organization.  We saw the huge season that Matt Wieters put up in 2008 earning him Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year award, but he has never showed the type of offense that he did in the minors.  Part of the reason is that instead of valuing him for his bat and protecting him, Showalter fell in love with his arm so he rode him into the ground behind the plate every season and wasted one of the most valuable tools Wieters had to offer.  Now injuries from that abuse have taken their toll so we will likely never see that offense that made him the game’s best prospect.

Sisco has been a different story.  He’s never had a spectacular throwing arm and he’s never cracked the top 50 MLB prospects of any publication until this offseason (#44 for MLB Pipeline).   However what he has done is put up a career .311 AVG and .390 OBP in the minors and when he debuted this season, in just 10 games he had 22 PAs and hit .333/.455/.778 with a .499 wOBA.  That was good enough for 0.3 fWAR in value.

Not even Matt Wieters had those results in his debut in 2009 and looking back at homegrown catchers, I can’t find any that had a better debut offensively than Sisco in the team’s history.

So why aren’t we talking about this more?

Well, the Baltimore media has bought into the obsession of controlling the running game, just as they are biased in favor of Buck Showalter in general, so of course Sisco’s throwing arm outweighs his ability with a bat.

I’ll reference the recent Orioles.com article by Britt Ghiroli:

Yes, it was a small sample size. But the 22 Major League plate appearances Sisco had this fall were encouraging. He had six hits, including two doubles and two home runs. He also walked three times and finished with a respectable line of .333/.455/.778.

Respectable?  That is downright fantastic and as I pointed out, probably the best debut of any homegrown Orioles catcher.

But this is what downgrades him in Buck’s and likely Ghiroli’s eyes:

Defensively, Sisco did not throw out a baserunner in five attempts and will spend this winter — along with Spring Training — trying to improve behind the plate, which has always been more of a weakness than his bat.

And then there’s more about his defense here:

“Scouts now project him to be average behind the plate, though his fringy arm and catch-and-throw skills limit his impact on the running game.”

Given the O’s recent woes in their rotation, they can’t afford to have a liability behind the plate, making Sisco’s improvement key in determining if he’ll platoon with Joseph or earn his way into an everyday role, like outfielder Trey Mancini did this year.

So it is his catch and throw skills, yet he has seemingly no problems as a receiver or a game caller.  It seems that it is purely his throwing to bases that downgrades him so much as to be a “liability”.

And if you platoon him, he still needs to become the defacto starting catcher because he’s a LH hitter and doesn’t have reverse splits so he should get the bulk of the time against RH pitching.

There’s also another catcher who had a solid bat but was below average at throwing out runners that Dan Duquette acquired in an infamous trade 1997:

Jason Varitek.

Varitek’s career caught stealing percentage is 23%, but the Red Sox didn’t really care because he also caught 4 no-hitters, won a World Series championship and had a career .341 OBP and .774 OPS.

I’d say he was pretty far from being a “liablity” behind the plate and certainly not one at it.

The person that scouted Varitek and recommended him to Duquette as a trade target was also none other than current Orioles’ scouting director Gary Rajsich, so I think he knows a little something about catching prospects.

Here’s Duquette on Sisco when he was called up in an article by the Baltimore Sun:

“He’s taken the time and effort to learn his trade as a catcher,” executive vice president Dan Duquette said. “It’s a tough job and he’s improved a lot in terms of his throwing. I think he’s thrown out 41 percent since the All-Star break.

I’m really proud of the progress he’s made defensively and he’ll get some good experience that will help him in the future, and he can hit.”

It’s pretty clear that Duquette likes Sisco, but when asked about Sisco in a recent interview Buck Showalter instead wanted to talk about Austin Wynns, a 26 year old catcher in Bowie.   Buck raved about his catch and throw skills and basically put him at the same level as Sisco in value even though he’s nowhere close.

The fan website OriolesHangout.com recently came out with their list of Top 30 Orioles prospects and they also downgraded Sisco to be only the Orioles’ 4th best prospect in part because of questions about his ability to control the running game and they had Wynns ranked 19th.

Are you kidding me?  Now he doesn’t have the Matt Wieters hype machine (nor his own website) but Sisco is the Orioles’ best prospect by far.  Wynns is great depth, but there are literally dozens of catchers who could have the same skillset.  Somebody with Sisco’s bat and ability to be an average catcher is pretty rare and it seems to be very unappreciated by some just because he won’t make the highlight reel gunning down a runner at 2B.

The best thing  the Orioles could do is let Sisco hit all RH pitching to start and bat him at leadoff to take advantage of his on-base ability.  With their desperate need for on-base skills and a LH bat to balance their heavy RH lineup, and the fact Sisco does not seem to have issues with his game calling or receiving, the two most important defensive skills for a catcher, the Orioles must include Sisco on their 25 man roster on Opening Day.

To not take a chance on Sisco based purely on his throwing arm would be foolish.

Top image:  CC Image (cropped) courtesy of Tom Hagerty on Flickr

So many fans are hoping the Orioles find some way to hang onto Manny Machado after 2018 with an extension this offseason, but in reality if the Orioles are going to go for a World Series title, the one area they must improve is starting pitching.

Therefore, given the top of the rotation options this offseason that are on the market, former Oriole Jake Arrieta seems to be the best option available to the Orioles.  He’s going to come at a premium especially with Boras as his agent and the Orioles don’t have enough payroll room to sign both him and Machado to long term deals.

So here’s the question:

Would you rather see the Orioles sign Jake Arrieta or Manny Machado?

Before answering it’s important to look at each deal and the consequences of signing each player.

Manny Machado

A Machado extension has been talked about non-stop this season, and if it happens it is going to set the record for the highest contract ever given to an Orioles player, and perhaps the largest contract in MLB history.

Most think it will fall in the 10 year $300+ M range and I think that seems about right.  Machado is now 25 so that would take him into his mid-30s.

Once thought to be the next Alex Rodriguez, Machado has instead been much better than A-Rod with his glove, while exercising not nearly the same plate discipline, leading to a lower career wOBA and wRC+ than A-Rod had at the same age.

The question to ask for Machado is: have we already seen his best?  In 2017 he’s had a phenomenal second half but he’s still only at 3.3 fWAR for the season with only a few games left to go.  In 2016 he had 6.6 fWAR but even that was down from his career 6.9 fWAR in 2015.

There’s a big difference in paying $30 M per season or more for a player that is only worth slightly more than 3 wins over a replacement player and one that is 6+ wins as he has been in the past.  Fangraphs estimates his worth to be $26.2 M this season so it wouldn’t be a huge overpay, but an overpay nevertheless

Manny’s defense has also been a tick below his spectacular self this season as well as he’s +6 DRS which ranks him 8th best in MLB, down from his +14 (3rd) and +13 (4th) at 3B in 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Signing Manny to a long term extension is a gamble that the Orioles think the best years are still ahead of him when that may not be the case.

Still there’s a good chance he’ll remain in the top 3rd of defensive third basemen for years to come even if he never reaches close to Alex Rodriguez potential with the bat and that may just be enough entertainment value for fans to warrant the price.

Jake Arrieta

Arrieta is a bonified ace, there’s no doubt about that.  Having won the Cy Young in 2015 after the Orioles traded him a few seasons just before, Arrieta has gone on to a 60-38 record with the Cubs with a 2.71 ERA.

However Arrieta will be 32 next season, so he’s likely reached his peak and he will see his fastball velocity start to decline.  Plenty of pitchers have had this happen though, and the very best have adapted and still been very effective into their late 30s such as former Orioles ace, Mike Mussina.

Although he stays in great shape, Arrieta has been banged up a bit this year with a cut on his right thumb earlier in the season and a hamstring injury earlier this month limiting him to just 29 starts this season.

Signing Arrieta obviously would be a gamble just like any long term contract to a pitcher.  Very few of those $100+ M deals to pitchers have worked out for teams that have signed them.  I’m guessing Boras and Arrieta would be looking for a similar contract signed by Max Scherzer but due to his recent injury and age, I think he’s looking at more like a 6 year deal worth $25-30 M.

Still, the Orioles have a giant hole in their rotation, and bringing back Arrieta would help ease some of the pain of Orioles fans when he was traded away and became the ace of the Cubs and won a World Series with them in 2016.

Machado or Arrieta?

When you look at both deals, both are gambles.   However the one fact remains:  Manny Machado is under Orioles control for 2018 while there is a gaping hole in the Orioles’ rotation.

The Orioles also have Jonathan Schoop or Tim Beckham that can play 3rd base beyond 2018 with Ryan Mountcastle moving to 2nd base while there is no ace in waiting in the Orioles’ minors.  Sure neither will have Machado’s defense, but it’s more important for the Orioles to become a complete team.

I frankly don’t expect either deal to happen because Machado is certain to test free agency and Arrieta is going to have so many more attractive options than Baltimore.   That being said,  I would sign Jake Arrieta because the Orioles need to do something huge on the pitching front after the disaster that was 2017 and Arrieta would be that major move, just like the one Dan Duquette made when he traded for Pedro Martinez after the disastrous 1997 season for the Red Sox.

For all of the flak Duquette has taken for trading away Arrieta in 2013, he possibly could receive credit for bringing back the ultimate piece that ended the Orioles’ World Series drought just as Arrieta helped do with the Cubs.

Given the choice, I say it’s time to bring Jake back, even if it means saying goodbye to Manny.

It’s worth it to have the best chance to say hello to a World Series in Baltimore in 2018.

Top images:  CC Images courtesy of Keith Allison (R) and Arturo Pardavila III (L) on Flickr

My last post invoked quite a mixed reaction from the Orioles fanbase, but one of the things I saw come up in the comments the most was:

Who is going to replace Buck Showalter if you fire him?

This is a fair question, and one that needs it’s own post to explore potential candidates.

First let’s look back at the managers that replaced him in each setting where he was fired:

New York Yankees – Joe Torre

Joe Torre was picked as Buck’s replacement after the 1995 season and it will go down as one of the most successful manager changes in baseball history.  Not only did the Yankees win the 1996 World Series, but they went on to win the 1998, 1999 and 2000 World Series and appeared and lost in 2001 and 2003 under Torre’s management.

Torre had just been fired as the Cardinals manager in 1995 part way through the season and he had managed the Cardinals since 1990,  and the  Braves (1982-1984) and Mets (1977-1981) before that.  Between managing jobs with the Braves and Cardinals, Torre worked as a color commentator for NBC and the California Angels.

Torre played for the Braves, Cardinals and Mets in his MLB career and was a 9-time All-Star winning the NL MVP in 1971.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Bob Brenly

The D’Backs chose Bob Brenly to replace Showalter in Arizona. Brenly of course guided the Diamondbacks to an improbable win over the Yankees for a championship as Showalter’s two former teams met in in the 2001 World Series.

Brenly had never managed before and had last coached with the Giants in 1995 before becoming a broadcaster with Fox, where he remained until hired by Arizona after the 2000 season.

Brenly was a catcher for the Giants and Jays during his MLB career finishing his career with the Giants in 1989.

Texas Rangers – Ron Washington

The Rangers picked Ron Washington to replace Buck Showalter after the 2006 season.  Like Brenly, Washington had never managed before but had served as a third base coach with the Oakland A’s helping to develop young stars like Miguel Tejada and Eric Chavez.

Unlike Brenly and Torre, Washington didn’t have immediate success until 2010 when he managed his team to back to back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011, both losses.

Washington was a former journeyman MLB shortstop that played with the Dodgers, Twins, Orioles, Indians and Astros.

So all three teams chose managers with a variety of backgrounds. The Yankees chose to go with an experienced manager that had to see any real success, while the Diamondbacks and Rangers chose to go with former coaches that had never managed.

Who is the best fit for the Orioles?  I’ll go over a few candidates that the Orioles could pursue:

Jason Varitek

Varitek is my number one choice to be the Orioles’ next manager.  He really doesn’t need much of an introduction for Orioles fans because he tormented the Orioles for his playing career, including catching two of the four no-hitters he caught in his career against the Birds.

Varitek knows pitchers, as he has caught some of the best in the modern era – so there’s no doubt to me that he could help fix this weakness that the club currently has.

Coming from the Red Sox organization, he also has an appreciation for hitters that get on base, instead of the free-swingers that Buck Showalter continues to advocate to acquire and put in his lineup night after night.  He would be a much better fit for Dan Duquette in that regard as the two would see more eye-to-eye on the need to increase the Orioles’ on-base capability.

Speaking of Duquette, there already is a connection there as Dan Duquette brought Jason Varitek to the Red Sox  originally in a 1997 trade with the Mariners.  Needless to say that move set up the Red Sox success over the next decade as Varitek became the team captain and was the symbol of their success.

It would be great to see Duquette bring Varitek to the Orioles to start another era of championships and success.

Currently Varitek is serving as a special assistant to Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowksi, and actually turned down an offer from the Mariners to manage after interviewing for the position in 2015.

Varitek has said he wants to manage a team in the future so why not the Orioles if the opportunity came up?

There are thoughts that he may be waiting for the Red Sox managerial post as Farrell’s contract is up after 2018 so he may only accept that role, but it’s certainly worth pursuing him.

Jim Thome

Thome briefly played for the Orioles in 2012 under Buck Showalter after he was acquired by Dan Duquette at the deadline, so there is already a tie to the organization.  Unlike Varitek, Thome’s ideal managing spot in Cleveland is likely going to be tied up for the near future with the success of Terry Francona, so he would be more likely to take the job in my opinion.

Thome would be ideal to work with this ballclub because of his success as a hitter, with his approach and on-base ability something he could pass on to the Orioles’ hitters.  Just like Varitek, he’d be a better match for Duquette because of that approach being important.  He’s well liked enough throughout baseball that he could likely put together a good coaching staff as well.

Here’s what his former teammate Paul Konerko had to say in 2014 about Thome possibly managing:

“Jim is probably the most positive guy I’ve been around,” Konerko said. “Whether it’s a person in baseball or on the street, he handles people right. That’s more of the bulk of the work now because you have a lot of people helping you make decisions.”

I doubt you’d see a situation like Hyun Soo Kim’s with Thome in the dugout.

Thome is currently working for the White Sox as a special assistant and as an analyst for MLB Network.

Billy Ripken

I honestly hadn’t thought of Billy Ripken as a manager until somebody asked me about it on Twitter.

After giving it some thought, the other Ripken would be a good managing candidate as he grew up with “The Oriole Way” with his father and brother and has deep ties throughout MLB with his job as an analyst at MLB Network.   His most recent coaching experience came as a coach for the 2009 World Baseball Classic United States team.

He would be a longshot though, as he’s said that managing doesn’t currently interest him in an interview with Thom Loverro earlier this year, but if the Orioles came calling?

If you want to restore “The Oriole Way” hiring a Ripken would be a good start and I think Billy actually would do better than his more famous brother.

Chris Hoiles

Chris “Tractor Man” Hoiles is arguably the franchise’s best overall catcher, backstopping the Orioles during their mid-90s playoff runs and former Orioles ace Mike Mussina always wanted him behind the plate when he was on the mound.

Hoiles managed the Atlantic League’s York Revolution for three seasons before stepping down for personal reasons in 2009 and is now a roving catching instructor in the Orioles’ minor leagues and owns and is a hitting instructor with Gold Glove Sports Academy.

Here’s what he had to say in 2012 before re-joining the organization:

“The job I’d really enjoy is working in-game with pitchers and catchers, and with the pitching coaches, and having a plan before the games like we used to do. Go over the opposition and have a game plan, and then work with them in-game, talk to them,” Hoiles said. “I could help with their hitting, too. I think I have a lot to offer with that.

A manager does all of these things, and while he hasn’t any major league experience, neither have many managers lately before they’ve been given a shot.

Hoiles would definitely be an outside-the-box choice, but perhaps that may be all it would take to flip the switch into the Orioles being a World Series contender.

Brady Anderson

Anderson is viewed as an heir to Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations Dan Duquette when Duquette’s contract expires, but he has a much more personal relationship with the players than any front office executive would normally have.

He’s not high on my list at all, but he has the trust and support of Peter Angelos already, so one would think he’d be high on the list of candidates if he wanted it so that’s why his name has to be put out there.

Frankly, Anderson as manager might be the best move for the Orioles moving forward if he stays with the the organization as the last two contracts he’s been involved with (Darren O’Day and Mark Trumbo) seem to already be albatrosses.

So those are a few candidates that I can see realistically replacing Buck Showalter.

Any candidate the Orioles pick needs to improve on the weaknesses that have shown up under Showalter’s tenure – an inability to get consistent starting pitching and a lineup that is poorly constructed and favors free-swingers with power over professional hitters with on-base ability and solid plate approaches.

Now you can say Dan Duquette acquires the players, but Showalter has a big say and decides playing time so the next manager must have a better relationship and kindred thought process on how to build the roster.  Right now that’s a big missing link in Baltimore and it has shown up over the past few seasons.

Fix that missing link, and the Orioles will be one step closer to the World Series.

Top images:  CC Images courtesy of Keith Allison on Flickr

Yes I said it, and it shouldn’t be a shock for those that have been following me on Twitter and reading my articles at Eutaw Street Report.

Seriously, it’s past time fellow Orioles fans.  There are reasons that teams fire Buck Showalter, and those reasons have been showing up far too often, especially this season and last.

I wrote for Eutaw Street Report last year about how Showalter heavily influenced the Orioles’ collapse at the end of the 2016 season culminating in their loss to the Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card game, and it seems Buck still hasn’t learned from that and is doubling down on the same type of managing.

There’s plenty of evidence to show exactly that and I’ll go into depth on each one:

1.  Hyun Soo Kim is still a benchwarmer.

If you haven’t already, I’d encourage you to read my “The Hitter vs. Slugger II” article over at Eutaw Street Report.  I would hope you would also agree there is no way that Hyun Soo Kim should have only 15 starts at this point in the season when the team is struggling to produce runs.   He’s being benched against RHPs as well as LHPs and the team is now 14-16 when he doesn’t start and 11-4 when he does.   Kim’s been on base in almost every game he’s started as well and his defense has also been superior than his competition so that can’t even be used as an excuse.

It is just asinine the way Buck Showalter has treated Hyun Soo Kim since Spring Training 2016 and I really hope Kim’s next team makes Buck look like the petty, stubborn and idiotic person that he has been in this situation.  Perhaps it might serve as a wake-up call for him and for others in terms of his supposed superior talent evaluation skills.

Kim’s treatment alone should get Showalter fired, but if you don’t think so there is more evidence to go through…

2.  The lineup construction is still poor

Adam Jones went from being the leadoff hitter in 2016 to the #2 hitter in 2017 instead of lower in the lineup.   Jones has been abysmal against LHP (47 wRC+)  as well and yet he’s still hitting 2nd when facing them.   Also as mentioned, the 18th best OBP in MLB in 2016 has been benched for a free-swinging RH hitter against RHP and when he does play, he’s batting in the bottom of the lineup.    Why Welington Castillo isn’t batting much higher vs. LHP is also a mystery as he’s been very good against them for his career (126 wRC+) and is again this season (120 wRC+).

It really doesn’t take a ton of effort to put a good lineup together and yet Buck makes the worst lineup decisions night after night and sticks with them no matter the result.  He also never tries to adjust with PHers until very late in the game if at all.  It really is maddening and it’s likely costing the Orioles precious wins early in the season.

3.  Buck is still leaving his starters in too long.

Everybody probably remembers the Wade Miley incident in Game 2 of the final series against the Yankees on October 1, 2016.  If you don’t, you are probably better off, but let’s recap those events anyway:

Buck leaves Miley in with a lead in spite of having been hit well in the 6th inning before and Miley having a pitch count of 108.  The best description to use is that Miley survived that inning so why bring him back out for the 7th when you have an expanded bullpen?   That decision lead to the bullpen ultimately imploding with the final nail in the coffin a 2-run double by Brett Gardner off of Oliver Drake and the Orioles lost a game they should have won.

The Jays also won that day, so that ended the Orioles chance to clinch the 1st Wild Card spot and home field advantage at OPACY where the Jays could have never hit a walk-off HR and where the Orioles had had more success against them instead of the Rogers Centre.

The Orioles have already experienced at least two games with a similar scenario in 2017.  One which I will go through below ended up in a horrific loss, but the other the Orioles managed to win in extra innings.

Anyway, it’s time to re-live the horror that was April 28th against (of course) the Yankees.

Kevin Gausman had made it through 6 innings against the Yankees. He had just gotten touched up  for 3 runs in the 6th inning and 1 in the 5th after pitching 4 shutout innings.  The Orioles got 2 more runs in the top of the 7th and still had a commanding 11-4 lead though and could have easily won.

Buck Showalter brought Gausman out for the 7th inning though and that’s when everything unraveled just like it did months before.

Gausman gave up an infield single to Austin Romine, and that seemed harmless, but then Buck decided to bring in Vidal Nuno instead of one of his other trusted bullpen arms like Givens, O’Day or Hart.

Buck also could have brought Nuno in with nobody on to start the inning and that one baserunner who seemed harmless could have been an out and then the Orioles would have only given up 3 runs instead of 4 when Ellsbury hit his HR, or perhaps Nuno would have been able to pitch a shutout inning without having to worry about any baserunners to start.   Anyway you look at it, Gausman should have never started that inning just like Miley never should have started the 7th inning of Game 2.  But he did, and Nuno had to pitch with a runner on and it didn’t go well.

Nuno got the first out, but then gave up a double to Chase Headley and walked Matt Holliday and then Jacoby Ellsbury with one swing made it an 11-8 game.

Givens came in and was able to get the Orioles out of the inning but the damage had been done as the Yankees had new life with Ellsbury’s grand slam.

Showalter summoned Brad Brach in the bottom of the 9th to close the game out, but Brach had just pitched 2 innings a couple of days ago, so he wasn’t exactly fresh.  Brach walked the first batter and then gave up a single to Matt Holliday to bring the tying run up in Ellsbury.  Luckily for the Orioles, Ellsbury grounded to SS but a run scored and now one swing could tie the game.  Wouldn’t you know it but the very next batter did – with Starlin Castro hitting a 2-run HR.  The game was tied but Brach was able to get the final two outs and avoid a walk-off for that inning.  In the 10th inning however, Buck turned to Jason Aquino who walked the first two batters, struck out the second and finally gave up the walk-off 3-run HR to Matt Holliday. The epic collapse was complete, and you can argue the team hasn’t been the same since.

A Wild Card berth and home-field advantage wasn’t on the line this time but the script and result was all too familiar.

4.  The regression of Manny Machado

The regression of Manny Machado has certainly been frustrating to watch.  In 2015 it seemed he’d finally turned a corner, and then in 2016 and especially 2017 he’s swinging for the fences and now making too many mental mistakes in the field.

At least he’s not swinging his fists, but whatever motivation he had from the Boston series that fueled him is gone now.  Now he looks disinterested at times and is acting like a player who already has the $400 million contract.  At least A-Rod showed up most nights.  Why has Buck allowed this to continue?  Sure he benched him one game with a “finger” issue, but why not send a clearer message?

Manny is supposed to be a leader, but the only place he is leading the Orioles is straight to mediocrity or worse.

5.  Not managing the bullpen to win every game.

Buck has shelved relievers for days on end and instead tried to win games with the likes of AAAA pitchers like Tyler Wilson and Vidal Nuno,   At some point, you can’t keep going to the AAA well and expecting the next guy up to shut out the opposition.  That’s a ton of pressure on those guys and the Orioles’ bullpen has folded under it.   Now some of it has been due to injuries, but if guys aren’t healthy, then Buck should take advantage of the 10-day  DL and get Dan Duquette to find more depth instead of trying to pitch with only 3 or 4 relievers for multiple days.

6.  Using only 3 players from an expanded 5 player bench

This is probably the most damaging offense so far because in theory this was a great idea to start the season to take advantage of the lack of a need of a 5th starter.   Buck could match up hitters with pitchers in the later innings and have some speed off the bench.  The only problem was that the only hitters he used as replacements were Rickard and Gentry during a game and most of the time it was to pinch run or act as a defensive replacement while Hyun Soo Kim and Ryan Flaherty rotted on the bench most nights.  Rickard and Gentry were also hardly ever pinch hit for when they faced tough RH relievers at the end of a game.

The worst part about this arrangement carrying further into the season though, is Buck weakened his bullpen by only carrying 6 relievers, yet he still didn’t take the advantage of having that ability to match up hitting late to end tie games for example, so he didn’t have to use them in extra innings.   Instead, while Kim and others rotted on the bench, Buck burned out his best relievers night after night in extra innings and used the Norfolk to Baltimore option shuttle to rotate in the freshest AAA pitcher to try to eat innings which hasn’t worked out well at all.  Now the Orioles are stuck with a bunch of burned out relievers when their starters can’t go the distance instead of the more fresher bunch they had in 2016.

That’s very reminiscent of the managing style of Dave Trembley who had 3 no-hit shortstops rotating on his bench and 13 pitchers for months and only used 12 of the 13.  I think we all know that Trembley’s managing is not an example to emulate.

7.  He’s more Hargrove than Weaver.

Buck also gets a lot of Earl Weaver comparisons, but he has nowhere near the emotion that Weaver showed in games.  Weaver got ejected 98 times in his career, an American League record and was never afraid to show up an umpire when he felt the team was getting screwed over.  Buck has only been ejected 14 times in his Orioles tenure.   Sure he’ll have animated conversations, but he is a little too respectful of the umpires that make terrible calls against his team, and there have been many as of late since the MASN dispute.

Mike Hargrove had a similar temperament but he got ejected 13 times in his 4 seasons with the Orioles so Buck is actually cooler tempered than Grover which is hard to imagine.

An ejection doesn’t seem like it does much, but it shows the players that you have their back and in spite of all the terrible calls and player ejections, Buck only had one ejection himself in 2016.

So that’s 7 current reasons to fire him.  Let’s look at a few more that transcend only the Orioles:

8.  Lack of postseason success

Showalter has a career 9-14 managerial record in the postseason. The 2014 ALCS was the furthest he’d taken any team and in the roughly 7.5  seasons that Showalter has managed,  the Orioles still don’t have a World Series appearance and don’t look to have one anytime soon.  Competitive baseball should no longer be the bar for a team that’s reached the postseason 3 times in that tenure, and that’s all Buck can seem to deliver.

On the other hand, teams that have fired him have almost immediately tasted success after with the Yankees and Diamondbacks winning their championships the season following his firing.  With the right moves, the Orioles could easily follow the same script IMO.

9.  Mancrushes and doghouses

Buck’s mancrushes are well known, and he seems to have an undying loyalty to those he has that mancrush on.  Buck has gone to bat for both players and coaches in his career, and it’s gotten him fired everywhere but in Baltimore.

He was first fired after a second place finish with the Yankees in 1995 in part when he refused to fire two of his coaches, Rick Down and Brian Butterfield.

David Lough, Delmon Young, Joey Rickard and Craig Gentry are a few players that stick out as being Showalter favorites as players in spite of their performance as regulars.  One should note that Buck usually comes to his senses as these players eventually became role players, but not until a few months into the season when wins have likely been sacrificed.

Buck’s doghouses though are another tale, and  many players have found their way into them over the years.   Also once they do, it is almost impossible to get out.

Alex Rodriguez is probably the most famous case as Buck wanted him gone so the Rangers dumped him for Alfonso Soriano who Buck also clashed with as he moved Soriano from his customary leadoff spot and then when that failed, he was traded to the Nationals for a package with Brad Wilkerson as the main return.   Kevin Mench is  another Rangers player who was there in 2006 and also eventually was traded to the Brewers in a blockbuster deal for Carlos Lee and Nelson Cruz.    Steve Pearce was in there early in 2014 until an injury to Chris Davis forced Buck to play Pearce at 1B but only after he was DFA’d, waived and re-signed with the team.

Henry Urrutia, who was just released by the Orioles, only got a short cup of coffee in 2013 in spite of hitting well at stops in Bowie and Norfolk .   Buck started him for about two weeks at the end of July before relegating him to PH duty only in the beginning of August and then sending him back to Norfolk and only getting him in 3 games after calling him back up in September.  He was originally a find of longtime scout Fred Ferreira, who had previously found talent like Vlad Guerrero and Bernie Williams so there was some excitement about Urrutia’s potential.   However,  Buck didn’t seem to like his defense nor the fact that he only seemed to hit opposite field singles instead of showing the power that was touted when he was signed.   Urrutia was sent to the minors again in 2014, was injured and only got one more call up in 2015 before being banished for good until his release this year.

Now of course the most recent case is Hyun Soo Kim, and who knows what his situation will be?  Will he get traded or released as well before the season ends?

Unless there is an injury, it’s a good bet seeing as Buck has been able to get rid of just about every player he hasn’t liked.  Considering Kim is one of the best professional hitters on the team, that would be a huge mistake.

10.  Teams “outgrow” him

This was the take when he was fired by the Rangers and Diamondbacks before that.  Well the Orioles are certainly a veteran team and Buck’s message doesn’t seem to be resonating any more given the sloppy play and mental mistakes.

Buck was the perfect fit for the Diamondbacks’ as the manager of an expansion team, and went from having one of the worst records in baseball (65-97) in 1998 to one of the best (100-62) in 1999.  However, that record slipped to 85-77 in 2000 as Showalter now was overseeing a team of veterans like Luis Gonzalez, Steve Finley and Randy Johnson instead of 20-somethings.  Buck was fired after 2000 and the Diamondbacks went on to win the World Series in 2001.

Buck took over the Rangers in 2003 with young talent like Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Kevin Mench and Hank Blalock.  He took the team from 71-91 in 2003 to 89-73 in 2004 after famously shipping Alex Rodriguez to the Yankees for Alfonso Soriano and Joaquin Arias, but the Rangers regressed to below .500 in the last two years of his tenure before Buck was fired after the 2006 season.  It took longer than the Yankees or Diamondbacks,  but the Rangers eventually returned to the playoffs and had back to back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011.

And with the Orioles, Showalter had an immediate impact on a young team when he took over from interim manager Juan Samuel finishing 34-23 to end 2010.  The next season the Orioles regressed back to 69-93 but at the very last game of the season they played spoiler and knocked the Red Sox out of the playoffs in a come from behind thriller.  That was a turning point as the 2012 Orioles built on that momentum and came out of nowhere to win an AL Wild Card spot with a 93-69 record, the reverse of 2011, and advance to the ALDS before losing to the Yankees.  The Orioles regressed back to an 85-77 record in 2013 before having their best record since 1997 going 96-66 and winning the AL East title and ALDS before being swept by the Royals in the ALCS.

Since then the Orioles finished a disappointing 81-81 in 2015, rebounded to a 89-73 record in 2016, but fell out of the division title down the stretch after leading the AL East for most of the season and barely claimed the 2nd AL Wild Card spot before being eliminated by Toronto in the biggest blunder of Buck Showalter’s managing career.

Seeing how this season is going with injuries and disappointing performances, the Orioles have likely already hit their high point with Buck Showalter.   They may sneak into the playoffs again, but there is no domination like there was in 2014 or magic like there was in 2012.    The bullpen is already burned out and veterans young and old seem unfocused and sloppy at the plate and on the field.

There’s simply no point in seeing what he can do the rest of the season because if we’ve seen the very best we are now are  seeing the regression just like the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Texas Rangers did.  The only difference is that Peter Angelos and most of the fans that support Buck seem content with just playing competitive baseball again instead of doing whatever it takes to take the team to the next level and end the 34-year World Series drought.

Now with that said that doesn’t take away any credit from Showalter from turning this team around after 14 losing seasons.  He had a major role in building this team’s confidence back up again so that they were no longer a doormat.  Managers don’t usually last as long as Buck has though, especially in the Angelos era, and as much as continuity is important, continuity for continuity’s sake is not a good enough reason to keep Showalter as the manager.

The goal needs to be to appear in and win the World Series.  The window is slamming shut (if it hasn’t already) after 2018 and Buck has never been able to get it done and likely won’t after looking at all the evidence against him.  So it’s time to do what all of Showalter’s other previous teams have done and move on to someone that can.

Orioles fans have waited far too long and don’t deserve to see their team get Bucked again.

Top image:  CC Image courtesy of Keith Allison on Flickr

It’s Opening Night, and while I’m happy to have Orioles baseball back tomorrow, there is a cloud that is hovering over the whole thing that I want to address first.

The Orioles decided to return Aneury Tavarez to the AL East rival Boston Red Sox, even after Tavarez stole 8 bases and hit .325 with an .850 OPS against right-handed pitching.

Dan Duquette said they also tried to work out a trade with the Red Sox, but the Red Sox wanted to keep Tavarez unless the Orioles paid a hefty price.

Shocker.

The worst part is the spin that is coming from the Warehouse:

Presence of Cedric Mullins, who hasn't played above Low-A, made it easier for #Orioles to return Tavárez, Duquette said.

— Jon Meoli (@JonMeoli) April 2, 2017

Sure Cedric Mullins hit .290 against right-handed pitching but he only had a .333 OBP and that was at low A ball, not AA like Tavarez.

Sure he also came on in Spring Training, but he’s not going to do anything for the Orioles until September at the earliest, and by then the Orioles may already be out of contention.  Not to mention, they have to add him to the 40-man roster as well.

Tavarez is somebody that could have helped the Orioles as soon as Opening Day.  He’s the guy that could have come off the bench as a pinch hitter, pinch runner and a defensive replacement all against right-handed pitching.

Instead, the Orioles will go with 3 right-handed outfield bats:  Joey Rickard, who couldn’t hit right-handed pitching last season, and Craig Gentry who has never hit right-handed pitching well, as well as Trey Mancini, who has never played the outfield professionally and who only had a .767 OPS against right-handed pitching in AAA.

And who is the only left-handed hitter the Orioles will have on their bench?  Ryan Flaherty.

Needless to say, the Orioles’ right-handed heaviness will hurt them in the later innings when Showalter turns to his bench for defensive replacements and those replacements will face the hard throwing right-handed pitchers out of the opposing team’s bullpen when they come to bat.  These are things that don’t seem to matter now, but will suddenly come to light in the coming days as the season progresses and the Orioles could lose games because of that roster construction.

Sure the Orioles have options for a left-handed bat when they need one. Pedro Alvarez is in the minors – but his transition to the outfield has been pretty rocky this spring and he will most certainly opt-out of his deal at the end of April if he does show major improvement defensively.   Alvarez is also no stolen base threat like Tavarez. Michael Bourn could always be called up as well, but he’s 34 and coming off an injury.   Anthony Santander, the Orioles’ other Rule 5 pick, is a switch-hitter so he can help as well when he’s finally at full strength, but his contribution is going to be more power instead of speed like Tavarez.

Tavarez was healthy and on the roster and could have easily fit in a number of ways.   Mancini and Rickard both had options and one of them could have been sent down to keep Tavarez in Baltimore.  Mancini could have worked on his defense in Norfolk instead of Baltimore like Alvarez is, and Rickard could have tried to hone his defensive skills as well.

Instead both will be limited to platoon at-bats to start and will likely eventually be over-exposed to right-handed pitching if you look at the history of how Buck Showalter has used platoon players not named Hyun Soo Kim.

Speaking of Kim, as I wrote earlier, letting him hit left-handed pitching was the easiest way the Orioles could have kept Tavarez as only one of Rickard or Gentry would have been needed to platoon with Seth Smith.  Kim did his part going 4-9 in Spring Training against left-handed pitching (counting his plate appearance against the Dominican Republic).  Showalter limited him from the start though, not letting Kim see any appearances against left-handed starters so it was pretty clear Kim would be platooned no matter what he did.

The Orioles make it seem like Tavarez just didn’t fit and that they did everything they could to keep him in the organization.  The truth is they could have easily kept him, and given the team the balance it needed on the bench and an offensive weapon that wouldn’t be a liability in the outfield either.  Instead they opted to carry multiple right-handed bats and continued to try to fit square pegs in round holes.

Now we’ll just have to see what Tavarez does in a Red Sox uniform and hope he doesn’t come back to burn the Orioles when it matters the most.